NBA Playoff Trends

NBA aficionados are thrilled playoff season is here to crown another champion. In the last 20-plus years, only one seed lower than number three has won the NBA championship and that was the 1994-95 Houston Rockets, who repeated after suffering a number of injuries early in that season. The fact remains you can’t get to the Finals unless you win the opening round, as the Dallas Mavericks found out last year.

The opening round of the post-season is fraught with all kinds of landmines, meaning the sharp bettor has to be on top of his game, if he expects to win in overall in the NBA Playoffs.

Dating back 11 seasons, it is discovered home teams win just under two-thirds of the time, with 273-142 straight up record, 65.7 percent. The two conferences have remarkably similar records during this time span, the Eastern Conference is 136-70, 66 percent and their counterpart in the West, is 137-72, 65.5 percent. Overall, wagering on the home team is a losing proposition at 208-198-9 against the spread, good for only 51.2 percent. The eight teams in the West have been a marginally better bet at 109-101 ATS, 51.9 winning percentage, compared to those in the East at 99-97-9 ATS.

It is obvious no money is available to be made blindly betting into one side or the other. That means seeking our own opportunity is the best thing we can to improve out profit potential. The first order of business is to determine if home underdogs are smart play. In this first round, home underdogs don’t show up until after the first two games of any series has been played. What we find is the higher seed is a significant enough favorite, to never be a home underdog for starters. When the scene switched to new arena, this is when the home pooch arrives at the door.

While this would have the appearance of a good wager, it has not been. Home dogs are poor 29-49 straight up and mildly better 36-40-2 ATS. This points to the better team being just that, better.

What happens after one game is in the books? This is area where the light starts to shine brighter, especially in one category. When any NBA team loses first game of a series, it goes with saying their opponent has caught their attention. From here the focus is shifted to Terminator- like, with only one thing in mind, even up the series at a game apiece. Here our home favorite is excited and ready to play with passion, while the visiting team can talk about wanting to win both road tilts, but the fact of the matter is they are somewhat satisfied and seldom can match the intensity of desperate team in need of a victory. Here are opening game home loser is 18-2 and 15-4-1 ATS, for a bookie busting 78.9 percent. That is +10.6 units on only 20 straight bets.

Game 1 losers are 15-4-1 ATS in next contest.

Game three is generally consider the most important encounter in a series, outside of a series finale. Here, three scenarios exist, the visitor is up 2-0, the visitor down is 0-2 or the teams tied at 1-1. Only a few instances have occurred where the visitor has lost both contests on home court and this holds no value for interpretation or making money. Visiting teams that have split are slightly below average bet when the series shifts to new locale, winning and covering just over 47 percent of the time.

One strong angle to play is related to teams that are 1-1 and tied to previous profitable trend. Mentioned above, is game two winners that came back to even up series. As great as those teams play in that particular situation, they often crumble like a cookie when they have to travel for next ballgame. Many times the emotion used can not be mustered two consecutive games, especially on the road. Now the home crowd is wired, with their team having an opportunity to take the upper hand in the series and the home squad has the extra motivation off a loss and understands they just have to “hold serve” in order to win and advance. All visiting teams off a win with the series tied at one, are 6-14 SU and against the number. This is measly 30 percent for backers.

Game 3 visitors are 6-14 ATS off a win if series is tied.

Another profitable position to take is home teams down 2-0. Though most teams don’t win series down by such a margin, coaches and players are optimistic by nature and believe in there heart, if they can win this contest they are back in the series. While the merits of this wisdom are debatable, what concerns the winning bettor looking for angle is opportunity.

The out-of-town team might be feeling their oats also, knowing just a couple of wins are necessary and might not bring A-game to face club they’ve already conquered twice. In this instance, the home team comes out with fire and has won 28 of 50 matchups on the hardwood. Mostly importantly is how they perform versus the oddsmaker and here we find the home team is 31-18-1 ATS, 63.2 percent.

The last aspect to cover has to do with the performances of first round series going the max. For many years, the opening round was a best-of-five foray. This was changed to best-of-seven in 2003, with too many higher seeded teams being bumped and owners, GM’s and coaches complaining that after 82 games to earn a position, any team could have a couple of bad outings and be chucked to the curb.

One frequent aspect believed to be true is home teams have a decided edge in these final encounters. This does turn out to be true, with the visiting teams only 6-18, 25 percent to win the series. Those setting the numbers play into this knowledge and shade the home squads accordingly. Since these NBA teams are known for winning, closer games are also the rule, which can get lost amid fine winning record. Though the visitors have a low wining percentage, they are 12-12 against the spread in these deciding conflicts.

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